Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions.
Identifieur interne : 005D30 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 005D29; suivant : 005D31Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions.
Auteurs : Steven Riley [Royaume-Uni] ; Christophe Fraser ; Christl A. Donnelly ; Azra C. Ghani ; Laith J. Abu-Raddad ; Anthony J. Hedley ; Gabriel M. Leung ; Lai-Ming Ho ; Tai-Hing Lam ; Thuan Q. Thach ; Patsy Chau ; King-Pan Chan ; Su-Vui Lo ; Pak-Yin Leung ; Thomas Tsang ; William Ho ; Koon-Hung Lee ; Edith M C. Lau ; Neil M. Ferguson ; Roy M. AndersonSource :
- Science (New York, N.Y.) [ 1095-9203 ] ; 2003.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Analyse de regroupements, Flambées de maladies (), Hong Kong (épidémiologie), Hospitalisation, Humains, Infection croisée (), Infection croisée (transmission), Infection croisée (épidémiologie), Isolement du patient, Lutte contre l'infection, Mathématiques, Modèles statistiques, Méthodes épidémiologiques, Pratique en santé publique, Probabilité, Processus stochastiques, Quarantaine, Santé mondiale, Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (), Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (transmission), Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (virologie), Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (épidémiologie), Traçage des contacts, Virus du SRAS (physiologie).
- MESH :
- physiologie : Virus du SRAS.
- virologie : Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère.
- épidémiologie : Hong Kong, Infection croisée, Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère.
- Analyse de regroupements, Flambées de maladies, Hospitalisation, Humains, Infection croisée, Isolement du patient, Lutte contre l'infection, Mathématiques, Modèles statistiques, Méthodes épidémiologiques, Pratique en santé publique, Probabilité, Processus stochastiques, Quarantaine, Santé mondiale, Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère, Traçage des contacts.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Hong Kong.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Cluster Analysis, Contact Tracing, Cross Infection (epidemiology), Cross Infection (prevention & control), Cross Infection (transmission), Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control), Disease Outbreaks (statistics & numerical data), Epidemiologic Methods, Global Health, Hong Kong (epidemiology), Hospitalization, Humans, Infection Control, Mathematics, Models, Statistical, Patient Isolation, Probability, Public Health Practice, Quarantine, SARS Virus (physiology), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (epidemiology), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (prevention & control), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (transmission), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (virology), Stochastic Processes.
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Hong Kong.
- epidemiology : Cross Infection, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- physiology : SARS Virus.
- prevention & control : Cross Infection, Disease Outbreaks, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- statistics & numerical data : Disease Outbreaks.
- transmission : Cross Infection, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- virology : Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- Cluster Analysis, Contact Tracing, Epidemiologic Methods, Global Health, Hospitalization, Humans, Infection Control, Mathematics, Models, Statistical, Patient Isolation, Probability, Public Health Practice, Quarantine, Stochastic Processes.
Abstract
We present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters-initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs)-and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSEs, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission.
DOI: 10.1126/science.1086478
PubMed: 12766206
Affiliations:
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Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ghani, Azra C" sort="Ghani, Azra C" uniqKey="Ghani A" first="Azra C" last="Ghani">Azra C. Ghani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Abu Raddad, Laith J" sort="Abu Raddad, Laith J" uniqKey="Abu Raddad L" first="Laith J" last="Abu-Raddad">Laith J. Abu-Raddad</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hedley, Anthony J" sort="Hedley, Anthony J" uniqKey="Hedley A" first="Anthony J" last="Hedley">Anthony J. Hedley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, Gabriel M" sort="Leung, Gabriel M" uniqKey="Leung G" first="Gabriel M" last="Leung">Gabriel M. Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ho, Lai Ming" sort="Ho, Lai Ming" uniqKey="Ho L" first="Lai-Ming" last="Ho">Lai-Ming Ho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lam, Tai Hing" sort="Lam, Tai Hing" uniqKey="Lam T" first="Tai-Hing" last="Lam">Tai-Hing Lam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Thach, Thuan Q" sort="Thach, Thuan Q" uniqKey="Thach T" first="Thuan Q" last="Thach">Thuan Q. Thach</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chau, Patsy" sort="Chau, Patsy" uniqKey="Chau P" first="Patsy" last="Chau">Patsy Chau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chan, King Pan" sort="Chan, King Pan" uniqKey="Chan K" first="King-Pan" last="Chan">King-Pan Chan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lo, Su Vui" sort="Lo, Su Vui" uniqKey="Lo S" first="Su-Vui" last="Lo">Su-Vui Lo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, Pak Yin" sort="Leung, Pak Yin" uniqKey="Leung P" first="Pak-Yin" last="Leung">Pak-Yin Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tsang, Thomas" sort="Tsang, Thomas" uniqKey="Tsang T" first="Thomas" last="Tsang">Thomas Tsang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ho, William" sort="Ho, William" uniqKey="Ho W" first="William" last="Ho">William Ho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Koon Hung" sort="Lee, Koon Hung" uniqKey="Lee K" first="Koon-Hung" last="Lee">Koon-Hung Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lau, Edith M C" sort="Lau, Edith M C" uniqKey="Lau E" first="Edith M C" last="Lau">Edith M C. Lau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M" last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Roy M" sort="Anderson, Roy M" uniqKey="Anderson R" first="Roy M" last="Anderson">Roy M. Anderson</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Science (New York, N.Y.)</title><idno type="eISSN">1095-9203</idno><imprint><date when="2003" type="published">2003</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Cluster Analysis</term><term>Contact Tracing</term><term>Cross Infection (epidemiology)</term><term>Cross Infection (prevention & control)</term><term>Cross Infection (transmission)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Epidemiologic Methods</term><term>Global Health</term><term>Hong Kong (epidemiology)</term><term>Hospitalization</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infection Control</term><term>Mathematics</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Patient Isolation</term><term>Probability</term><term>Public Health Practice</term><term>Quarantine</term><term>SARS Virus (physiology)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (epidemiology)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (prevention & control)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (transmission)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (virology)</term><term>Stochastic Processes</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse de regroupements</term><term>Flambées de maladies ()</term><term>Hong Kong (épidémiologie)</term><term>Hospitalisation</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infection croisée ()</term><term>Infection croisée (transmission)</term><term>Infection croisée (épidémiologie)</term><term>Isolement du patient</term><term>Lutte contre l'infection</term><term>Mathématiques</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Méthodes épidémiologiques</term><term>Pratique en santé publique</term><term>Probabilité</term><term>Processus stochastiques</term><term>Quarantaine</term><term>Santé mondiale</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère ()</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (transmission)</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (virologie)</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (épidémiologie)</term><term>Traçage des contacts</term><term>Virus du SRAS (physiologie)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Hong Kong</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Cross Infection</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Virus du SRAS</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiology" xml:lang="en"><term>SARS Virus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Cross Infection</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Cross Infection</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Hong Kong</term><term>Infection croisée</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Cluster Analysis</term><term>Contact Tracing</term><term>Epidemiologic Methods</term><term>Global Health</term><term>Hospitalization</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infection Control</term><term>Mathematics</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Patient Isolation</term><term>Probability</term><term>Public Health Practice</term><term>Quarantine</term><term>Stochastic Processes</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse de regroupements</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Hospitalisation</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infection croisée</term><term>Isolement du patient</term><term>Lutte contre l'infection</term><term>Mathématiques</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Méthodes épidémiologiques</term><term>Pratique en santé publique</term><term>Probabilité</term><term>Processus stochastiques</term><term>Quarantaine</term><term>Santé mondiale</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère</term><term>Traçage des contacts</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Hong Kong</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">We present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters-initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs)-and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSEs, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Abu Raddad, Laith J" sort="Abu Raddad, Laith J" uniqKey="Abu Raddad L" first="Laith J" last="Abu-Raddad">Laith J. Abu-Raddad</name><name sortKey="Anderson, Roy M" sort="Anderson, Roy M" uniqKey="Anderson R" first="Roy M" last="Anderson">Roy M. Anderson</name><name sortKey="Chan, King Pan" sort="Chan, King Pan" uniqKey="Chan K" first="King-Pan" last="Chan">King-Pan Chan</name><name sortKey="Chau, Patsy" sort="Chau, Patsy" uniqKey="Chau P" first="Patsy" last="Chau">Patsy Chau</name><name sortKey="Donnelly, Christl A" sort="Donnelly, Christl A" uniqKey="Donnelly C" first="Christl A" last="Donnelly">Christl A. Donnelly</name><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M" last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name><name sortKey="Fraser, Christophe" sort="Fraser, Christophe" uniqKey="Fraser C" first="Christophe" last="Fraser">Christophe Fraser</name><name sortKey="Ghani, Azra C" sort="Ghani, Azra C" uniqKey="Ghani A" first="Azra C" last="Ghani">Azra C. Ghani</name><name sortKey="Hedley, Anthony J" sort="Hedley, Anthony J" uniqKey="Hedley A" first="Anthony J" last="Hedley">Anthony J. Hedley</name><name sortKey="Ho, Lai Ming" sort="Ho, Lai Ming" uniqKey="Ho L" first="Lai-Ming" last="Ho">Lai-Ming Ho</name><name sortKey="Ho, William" sort="Ho, William" uniqKey="Ho W" first="William" last="Ho">William Ho</name><name sortKey="Lam, Tai Hing" sort="Lam, Tai Hing" uniqKey="Lam T" first="Tai-Hing" last="Lam">Tai-Hing Lam</name><name sortKey="Lau, Edith M C" sort="Lau, Edith M C" uniqKey="Lau E" first="Edith M C" last="Lau">Edith M C. Lau</name><name sortKey="Lee, Koon Hung" sort="Lee, Koon Hung" uniqKey="Lee K" first="Koon-Hung" last="Lee">Koon-Hung Lee</name><name sortKey="Leung, Gabriel M" sort="Leung, Gabriel M" uniqKey="Leung G" first="Gabriel M" last="Leung">Gabriel M. Leung</name><name sortKey="Leung, Pak Yin" sort="Leung, Pak Yin" uniqKey="Leung P" first="Pak-Yin" last="Leung">Pak-Yin Leung</name><name sortKey="Lo, Su Vui" sort="Lo, Su Vui" uniqKey="Lo S" first="Su-Vui" last="Lo">Su-Vui Lo</name><name sortKey="Thach, Thuan Q" sort="Thach, Thuan Q" uniqKey="Thach T" first="Thuan Q" last="Thach">Thuan Q. Thach</name><name sortKey="Tsang, Thomas" sort="Tsang, Thomas" uniqKey="Tsang T" first="Thomas" last="Tsang">Thomas Tsang</name></noCountry><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Riley, Steven" sort="Riley, Steven" uniqKey="Riley S" first="Steven" last="Riley">Steven Riley</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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